Sunday, November 20, 2011

Testing the 30 years estimate


Genealogists estimate 30 years for each generation and this is useful to guess birth dates when we have incomplete information. Let see on a real example how accurate the 30 years estimate may be.
We will use the well documented Spanish kings starting with Leonor de Borbon, (daughter of Philip de Borbon Prince of Asturias and grand-daughter of the happily-reigning Juan Carlos I). We will follow her ancestors for 45 generations completing 1325 years.  After all these centuries we only find a three-year error between genealogic estimate and the actual birth dates. 

Generation
Number
Name
Estimated Year
Birth Year
Error
1
Leonor de Borbon
2000
2005
-5
2
Felipe de Borbon
1970
1968
2
3
Juan Carlos I of Spain
1940
1938
2
4
Juan of Spain
1910
1913
-3
5
Alfonso XIII
1880
1886
-6
6
Alfonso XII
1850
1857
-7
7
Isabella II
1820
1830
-10
8
Ferdinand VII
1790
1784
6
9
Charles IV
1760
1748
12
10
Charles III
1730
1716
14
11
Philip V
1700
1683
17
12
Luis Dauphin of France
1670
1661
9
13
Maria Theresa of Spain
1640
1638
2
14
Philip IV
1610
1605
5
15
Philip III
1580
1578
2
16
Philip II
1550
1527
23
17
Charles I
1520
1500
20
18
Joanna I
1490
1479
11
19
Isabella I
1460
1451
9
20
John II
1430
1405
25
21
Henry III
1400
1379
21
22
John I
1370
1358
12
23
Henry II
1340
1333
7
24
Alfonso XI
1310
1311
-1
25
Ferdinand IV
1280
1285
-5
26
Sancho IV
1250
1258
-8
27
Alfonso X
1220
1221
-1
28
Ferdinand III
1190
1199
-9
29
Alfonso IX
1160
1171
-11
30
Ferdinand II
1130
1137
-7
31
Alfonso VII
1100
1105
-5
32
Urraca of Leon
1070
1081
-11
33
Alfonso VI
1040
1040
0
34
Sancha of Leon
1010
1013
-3
35
Alfonso V
980
989
-9
36
Bermudo II
950
956
-6
37
Ordoño III
920
925
-5
38
Ramiro II
890
898
-8
39
Ordoño II
860
873
-13
40
Alfonso III
830
848
-18
41
Ordoño I
800
821
-21
42
Ramiro I
770
790
-20
43
Bermudo I
740
739
1
44
Fruela
710
713
-3
45
Don Pedro
680
683
-3